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          Steel mills are reluctant to store more iron ore prices
          Creatime: 2019-9-24
          Over the years, iron ore prices have been "easy to rise and fall." However, due to the recent reluctance of steel mills to store more ore, the price of ore has changed to "easy to follow the decline and difficult to rise." According to the latest market reports provided by several domestic companies, steel mills are currently unwilling to hoard ore, steel traders are unwilling to hoard steel, and steel and ore prices are in a tepid state, but the excessive increase in steel output is worrying. .
          Oy According to the monitoring, the construction steel market since April has changed for the seventh consecutive week. After a brief strengthening at the beginning of the month, it has completely weakened by the middle of the month. The monthly decline in steel prices in some areas has approached 100 yuan per ton. People in the market report that at present, the steel industry has two "reservoirs" that are not what they used to be. One is the "reservoir" of iron ore and other raw materials. Due to the inferior financial strength of steel mills, the raw materials are generally depressed Reserves, the "intermediate mine" in the steel mill is shrinking; one is the "reservoir" of steel. Since the beginning of this year, the steel market has mostly focused on terminal immediate demand, and the middle "stock hoarding demand" has almost disappeared, directly leading to steel The city's "peak season is not seasonal".

          The cost of iron and steel has shifted downward, and it is still a trend in the short term. Since April, the domestic iron ore price has dropped significantly, and the cumulative decline has reached 60 yuan per ton. After the downstream billet and steel prices continued to fall, the domestic iron fine powder resources were relatively sufficient, and the panic of the mines appeared, and a large number of shipments led to a significant decline in iron ore prices. At present, domestic ore prices still do not have a price advantage over imported ore, and steel mills purchase very little, and prices will remain stable and weaken in the later stages. Quotations from foreign mines rose first and then fell, generally flat compared to the end of last month. In the first half of April, traders were optimistic about the low- and medium-grade imported iron ore market. Tender prices for Indian mines rose steadily, and quotations from external disks continued to rise. But in the second half of the month, as domestic ore prices continued to fall, steel mills' willingness to purchase imported ore weakened, traders were cautious in taking goods and prices fell again.

          In the current steel market, "intermediate demand" has contracted, "rigid demand" has independently released demand for steel, and the previous "magnification effect" has weakened. However, on the other hand, steel output is continuously driven by excess capacity and always runs at a high level, which makes the gap between supply and demand in the steel market continue to increase. Many people in the industry believe that this is the most important contradiction in the later steel market.

          Compared with previous years, the "destocking" rate of the steel market this year is relatively slow. The current 9-week inventory decline is only about 27%, and the inventory consumption in the past two years after the Spring Festival can reach 40% to 50%, which directly This confirms the weakening trend of demand release this year. According to statistical data, the average daily output of domestic crude steel in March was just below the historical high of June 2011, and the estimated national daily output of crude steel in early April exceeded 2.018 million tons in late June last year. And hit a record high. Although the output fell slightly in mid-April, it was still operating at an historical high of more than 2 million tons per day.

          Relevant institutional analysts believe that the current downstream demand of the steel market generally adopts the operation mode of "inventory reduction and immediate use", and the market transaction is a reflection of real demand. On the surface, this is squeezing the demand space of the steel market, but it is essentially squeezing the "foam and moisture" of the steel market. If the policy is expected to be good in the later period and the funds are relatively loose, the steel market in May is expected to rebound in a narrow range. Shock consolidation is the main tone, and it is difficult to have a "unilateral market" for both ups and downs.
           
               
           
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